OTTAWA - Stephen Harper's goal of attaining a majority government appears to be receding in the rear-view mirror as his campaign approaches the finish line, a new poll suggests.
The latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima rolling poll shows the Tories dropping two points to 35 per cent as of Friday in the wake of two leaders debates and growing concerns about the economy.
"The majority is definitely in more peril," said pollster Bruce Anderson.
"I don't think you can say it's out of reach with this much volatility going on, however. I've seen post-debate bubbles dissipate pretty quickly in the past and it's plausible this can happen again."
Also in peril is Liberal Leader Stephane Dion's hold on second place, the poll shows.
While Dion had an opportunity to take advantage of growing economic uncertainty during the English-language debate, the poll suggests it was NDP Leader Jack Layton and Green Leader Elizabeth May who most impressed Canadians.
In the new poll, NDP support has risen to 20 per cent, the highest of any point during the campaign in the Harris-Decima survey and only two points behind the stalled Liberals.
Meanwhile, the Greens keep rising and stand at 13 per cent in support.
The Bloc Quebecois were at nine points nationally but comfortably in the lead in Quebec at 37 per cent.
The rolling sample represents 1,247 interviews conducted Tuesday through Friday and is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 -- though the margin is much higher for regional samples.
Anderson said a rough estimate would suggest Harper needs to be at least in the high mid-30s to have any chance of forming a majority.
But the trend line is going against him in the two provinces he needs to make gains: Quebec and Ontario.
In Quebec, the Tories now trail the Bloc by 15 points, and after leading the Liberals for most of the campaign in Ontario, the latest survey showed them tied at 31 per cent.
"The debates didn't help Harper (in either provinces)," said Anderson.
In Quebec, the prime minister faced a revitalized Bloc after his controversial comments on youth crime and culture.
In Ontario, where fear about a recession is perhaps the highest in Canada, Harper offered no new initiatives on a day when the stock market plunged 800 points.
"The anxiety about the economy put a little bit in question how strong and decisive the prime minister looked and whether he looked like the kind of guy that was going to read the economic signals (and) cope with changing circumstances," he said.
The NDP owed most of their gains to women, who continued to drift away from the Liberal column.
Liberal support among women voters dropped three points to 23 per cent, the same as the NDP after the party picked up three points. Among women, the Tories still lead with 32 per cent support.
More information on the poll is available from www.harrisdecima.com. Respondents to the poll were asked the following question: "If a federal election were to be held tomorrow, whom do you think you would be voting for in your area?"
