Nasty winter tornadoes -- like the deadly ones last week that hit five states -- are likely to be stronger and stay on the ground longer with a wider swath of destruction in a warming world, a new study shows.
The combination of a longer and wider track with slightly stronger winds means some rare winter tornadoes that are killers now will have nine times more the power by the end of the century if carbon dioxide levels continued to rise, according to a study presented at the American Geophysical Union conference Monday.
The study, which pre-dates the devastating Mayfield, Kentucky, tornado outbreak, looks at strength and not frequency of big tornadoes as climate change progresses. Not peer reviewed yet, it was presented in poster form as a peak at new research to be published later.
"There is a potential for events in the future that are more intense that would not have been as intense in the current climate," said study author Jeff Trapp, head of atmospheric sciences at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign. "Bearing in mind that these high end events are still going to be rare."
Trapp took the conditions during two large tornado strikes in 2013 -- the Hattiesburg, Mississippi, tornado that in February of that year injured 82 people with winds of 170 mph and the Moore, Oklahoma, tornado that killed 24 people with winds up to 210 mph (340 kph) in May-- and put them into dozens of computer simulations of worst-case climate change scenario by 2100, which other scientists say is increasingly unlikely.
The worst-case scenario, which the world used to be on track for, would have another 6 degrees (3.3 degrees Celsius) or so of warming between now and the end of the century. Trapp said he will soon run simulations based on a scenario closer to the current trajectory for carbon dioxide emissions of about 3.2 degrees (1.8 degrees Celsius) warming above current levels.
Trapp found a big change on the winter storm, significantly longer and wider tracks and windspeed increases around 14% that added up to the nine-fold increase in power when using a formula that takes wind speed, rotation and size of path into account. Power increased 1.5 times for the spring storm, he said.
Trapp said that's because there are two key ingredients needed for tornadoes: unstable stormy weather and wind shear. Wind shear, the difference between winds up high and near the ground, is usually stronger in the winter, but there's not as much stormy weather because it requires warm humid conditions near the ground. But as the world warms there will be more opportunity for instability in the winter, he said.
Three outside scientists said there may be something to the research, but they aren't yet completely convinced.
"I'm not 100% sold on the technique, but it's a very interesting approach," said Harold Brooks, a scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma. "To me the really interesting result seems to be the longer-tracks for the cool season."
A single study always raises uncertainty issues, but the results make sense, said Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini: "One of the major components to Friday's outbreak was the broad and anomalous warm (swath of temperatures) which permitted the storm to last for what will likely be a record-breaking path length."
The owners of a North York condominium say they are facing a $70,000 special assessment to fix their building's parking garage. '$70,000 is a lot of money. It makes me very nervous and stressed out of nowhere for this huge debt to come in,' said Ligeng Guo.
Police released the identities of the mother and daughter who were killed after a fire tore through a 160-year-old building in Old Montreal on Friday.
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The sentencing of the man who pleaded guilty in the deadly hit-and-run in Kitsilano two years ago began on Friday.
Argentine star Lionel Messi was on the bench to start Inter Miami CF's game in Toronto on Saturday.
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A 30-year-old northwestern Ontario woman has been charged with arson following a structure fire Thursday night, police say.
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A French judge in the trial of dozens of men accused of raping an unconscious woman whose now former husband had repeatedly drugged her so that he and others could assault her decided on Friday to allow the public to see some of the video recordings of the alleged rapes.
Demonstrators converged on downtown Ottawa Saturday afternoon as part of a global day of action to protest Israel's military actions in the Middle East.
An organization who has assisted in locating 40 missing people since 2018, has its sights set on the Thames River near Cavendish Park in London, Ont.
Ontario Provincial Police have laid stunt charges against a driver caught speeding 75 km/h over the speed limit on Highway 417 in Ottawa's west end.
Police released the identities of the mother and daughter who were killed after a fire tore through a 160-year-old building in Old Montreal on Friday.
The sentencing of the man who pleaded guilty in the deadly hit-and-run in Kitsilano two years ago began on Friday.
Fedaa Nassar says any time she has heard the phone ring in the last year, she becomes overwhelmed with anxiety.
Donald Trump plans to return Saturday to the site where a gunman tried to assassinate him in July, as the former U.S. president sets aside what are now near-constant worries for his physical safety in order to fulfill a promise — “really an obligation,†he said recently — to the people of Butler, Pa.
Being an armchair detective has turned into an American obsession, fueled by an abundance of true-crime content in podcasts and television series. But some of those projects have sparked actual legal developments.
A French judge in the trial of dozens of men accused of raping an unconscious woman whose now former husband had repeatedly drugged her so that he and others could assault her decided on Friday to allow the public to see some of the video recordings of the alleged rapes.
French authorities said four migrants, including a two-year-old child, died Saturday in two separate incidents as they attempted to cross the English Channel toward Britain.
A rural Colorado county courthouse beefed up security Friday after threats were made against staff and a judge who sentenced former county clerk Tina Peters to nearly nine years behind bars for her role in a data breach scheme catalyzed by the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from former President Donald Trump.
A judge ripped into a Colorado county clerk for her crimes and lies before sentencing her Thursday to nine years behind bars for a data-breach scheme spawned from the rampant false claims about voting machine fraud in the 2020 presidential race.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau repeatedly reiterated calls for a ceasefire in the Middle East on Saturday as he blamed Hamas, Hezbollah and Israel for a staggering number of civilian deaths.
While America's southern border remains a hot button issue on the campaign trail, the result of the U.S. election in November could also impact the northern frontier with Canada, which remains the longest undefended border in the world.
NDP House leader Peter Julian says there's more his party wants to do in Parliament before the next election, but if the current dysfunction continues it will become a factor in how they vote on a confidence measure.
Bruzzese came down with COVID-19 in February 2023, and received her injection at the end of March. “Being able to recognize smells is something we take for granted, until you can’t.â€
New data raises questions about the drinks people consume and the potential risks associated with them, according to researchers at Galway University in Ireland, in partnership with Hamilton’s McMaster University.
Convenience store firms that operate thousands of outlets across Canada are taking the federal government to court to overturn regulations that restrict the sale of nicotine pouches to pharmacies.
Scientists announced on Thursday a milestone in neurobiological research with the mapping of the entire brain of an adult fruit fly, a feat that may provide insight into brains across the animal kingdom, including people.
For humans, flashing a smile is an easy way to avoid misunderstanding. And, according to a new study, bottlenose dolphins may use a similar tactic while playing with each other.
Alphabet's Google is testing showing check marks next to certain companies on its search results, a company spokesperson said on Friday, in a move aimed at helping users identify verified sources and steer clear of fake websites.
Hollywood star Keanu Reeves made his professional auto racing debut on Saturday in an event in which 'The Matrix' star spun out at famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
You might be thinking, 'Shut up!' but it’s officially true: the 'Princess Diaries' franchise is finally growing.
Legendary singer Paul Simon has said he is 'optimistic' about being able to return to performing live after losing most of his hearing in his left ear.
Dubai's Emirates airline has banned pagers and walkie-talkies from its planes, following last month's attacks on such devices carried by the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
TikToks of customers stuffing their faces with a US$20 endless shrimp. More than 100 restaurant closures and thousands of layoffs. A revolving door of CEOs. Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Brazil's Supreme Court said on Friday that lawyers representing social media platform X did not pay pending fines to the right bank, postponing its decision on whether to allow the tech firm to resume services in Brazil.
Travelling on a budget can be stressful, but there are ways you can ensure you're getting the best deal on flights as the holiday season approaches.
A five-seat sushi counter located inside another restaurant is the latest Vancouver eatery to receive a Michelin star.
Toilet paper shortages in stores across America are giving folks nightmarish reminders of the pandemic era. But the lack of toilet paper isn’t a direct result of a major port strike Tuesday. It’s because of panic buying.
Argentine star Lionel Messi was on the bench to start Inter Miami CF's game in Toronto on Saturday.
A permanent memorial at the site of the 2018 Humboldt Broncos bus crash is about to be a step closer.
The loss that extinguished the Calgary Stampeders playoff dreams Friday provided some deja vu for head coach Dave Dickenson.
Tesla is recalling more than 27,000 Cybertrucks because the rearview camera image may not activate immediately after shifting into reverse, the fifth recall for the vehicle since it went on sale late last year.
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A group of classic car enthusiasts donated hundreds of blankets to nursing homes in Nova Scotia.
Chantal Kreviazuk is set to return to Winnipeg to mark a major milestone in her illustrious musical career.
From the beaches of Cannes to the bustling streets of New York City, a new film by a trio of Manitoba directors has toured the international film festival circuit to much pomp and circumstance.
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The grave of a previously unknown Canadian soldier has been identified as a man from Hayfield, Man. who fought in the First World War.
A group of classic car enthusiasts donated hundreds of blankets to nursing homes in Nova Scotia.
Moving into the second week of October, the eastern half of Canada can expect some brisker fall air to break down from the north
What does New Westminster's təməsew̓txʷ Aquatic and Community Centre have in common with a historic 68,000-seat stadium in Beijing, an NFL stadium and the aquatics venue for the Paris Olympics? They've all been named among the world's most beautiful sports venues for 2024.
The last living member of the legendary Vancouver Asahi baseball team, Kaye Kaminishi, died on Saturday, Sept. 28, surrounded by family. He was 102 years old.
New data from Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley shows a surge in supply and drop in demand in the region's historically hot real estate market.
Fire crews battled a massive blaze in downtown Langley Saturday morning.
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Ever since Taylor Swift made thousands, if not millions, of loyal fans’ wildest dreams come true by announcing a three-show run in Vancouver this December, scammers have attempted, and sometimes succeeded, to take advantage of the scramble for tickets.
A Toronto police officer has been arrested after allegedly stealing three bottles of alcohol from a store.
Argentine star Lionel Messi was on the bench to start Inter Miami CF's game in Toronto on Saturday.
Two pedestrians have been taken to hospital with serious injuries after an early-morning collision in Vaughan.
An investigation is underway into a Friday night collision in southeast Calgary that left one person dead.
Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi laid out a path to the premier’s office at an NDP members' town hall meeting Saturday at the University of Calgary.
One person is dead following a rollover Saturday in the area of Plummers Road and Priddis Valley Road.
Demonstrators converged on downtown Ottawa Saturday afternoon as part of a global day of action to protest Israel's military actions in the Middle East.
Three people were taken to hospital after a crash between a pickup truck and a car in a rural part of Ottawa's south end on Saturday afternoon.
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Police released the identities of the mother and daughter who were killed after a fire tore through a 160-year-old building in Old Montreal on Friday.
Montreal police say they are increasing their presence across the city ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Oct. 7 start of the Israel-Hamas war.
Montreal police say a business in the city's Pointe-Saint-Charles neighbourhood was hit with Molotov cocktails two nights in a row.
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Highway 39 near Warburg was closed Saturday after a serious crash involving a motorcycle and a van.
Barrel racer pro Lynette Brodoway has been riding in rodeos since before some of her competitors were born.
Avry Wortman, 13, scored two touchdowns on Sunday during her team's win in the under 14 Greater Moncton Football Association.
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Communities outside of the perimeter aren’t immune to the housing and affordability struggles seen in Winnipeg.
As many as 25,000 employees could hit the picket lines as early as Tuesday morning, making it the second-largest strike in Manitoba’s history.
Saskatchewan's two major political parties made campaign stops in Moose Jaw Saturday with both promising to invest into the city if elected on Oct. 28.
A wind warning has been issued for parts of southern Saskatchewan, with gusts of up to 100 kilometres per hour (km/h) possible in some areas on Saturday, Environment and Climate Change Canada says.
Regina police are investigating after guns were fired at two homes last week, with one home being shot at on multiple occasions.
The Huron Ontario Provincial Police said they responded to a “downed airplane†just after 11 a.m. Saturday.
Police say they were called to the area of Simcoe Street and Market Street around 1:30 a.m. Saturday for a report of an assault.
The Oktoberfest Parade is fast approaching and organizers are urgently seeking volunteers to fill the role of sign carriers.
The Saskatchewan Teachers' Federation hosted a virtual election forum on education Thursday evening, giving candidates in the provincial election a chance to share their thoughts and answer questions on issues teachers find most important.
A permanent memorial at the site of the 2018 Humboldt Broncos bus crash is about to be a step closer.
A Saskatchewan man living in the United States has pleaded guilty to possessing child pornography after he unknowingly provided disturbing videos to an FBI agent he thought was a pedophile.
Canadian musician Jacob Hoggard has been found not guilty of sexually assaulting a young woman in northeastern Ontario eight years ago. The former Hedley frontman had pleaded not guilty to sexual assault.
Police released the identities of the mother and daughter who were killed after a fire tore through a 160-year-old building in Old Montreal on Friday.
Fire crews in Greater Sudbury battled a large garage fire on Friday.
An organization who has assisted in locating 40 missing people since 2018, has its sights set on the Thames River near Cavendish Park in London, Ont.
Huron OPP say they were on the scene of a plane crash this morning, with a pilot finding themselves unable to halt before the end of a runway in Brussels.
Canadians who are eligible for a GST/HST tax credit can expect their final payment of the year on Friday.
OPP are seeking assistance in their search for a 30-year-old man last seen in Orillia.
After collecting around a thousand bags of donated hockey equipment and 2,000 sticks since April, Saturday's Indigenous Hockey Equipment Drive in Barrie began delivering to youth in need across 15 Indigenous communities across Ontario.
Three people from Simcoe County face charges in relation to a drug trafficking investigation that police say resulted in the seizure of several weapons, drugs and thousands of dollars worth of stolen property.
The municipality issued a stern reminder for code violators, as both were fined following a warning issued by Leamington Fire Services.
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Travelling on a budget can be stressful, but there are ways you can ensure you're getting the best deal on flights as the holiday season approaches.
NDP Leader David Eby is promising to offer a $75-million loan forgiveness program to entice doctors, nurses and heath professionals to expand health-care services in rural British Columbia.
Ever since Taylor Swift made thousands, if not millions, of loyal fans’ wildest dreams come true by announcing a three-show run in Vancouver this December, scammers have attempted, and sometimes succeeded, to take advantage of the scramble for tickets.
We haven't heard the candidates talk much about education during B.C.'s 2024 election campaign, but the teachers' union is trying to put the spotlight on that issue.
Nearly two years after a man was stabbed to death in downtown Kelowna, RCMP have made an arrest in the case.
NDP Leader David Eby is promising to offer a $75-million loan forgiveness program to entice doctors, nurses and heath professionals to expand health-care services in rural British Columbia.
Three young suspects have been arrested in connection with a swarming attack on a teenager in B.C.'s Okanagan last week – and authorities have asked the public to stop circulating disturbing videos of the incident.
While the summer may be over, construction season in Lethbridge is not.
Lethbridge police executed dozens of warrants and laid numerous charges in another targeted enforcement project in the downtown area.
A person was airlifted to hospital following a serious crash in Taber, Alta., on Friday morning. Taber RCMP responded to the scene on Highway 864 around 10:30 a.m., for a crash involving an SUV and a semi-truck.
The Ontario College of Family Physicians has presented awards to 750 doctors based on comments from patients, including eight physicians who are part of the Group Health Centre in Sault Ste. Marie.
Two teens, ages 14 and 19, have been charged with arson in connection with a July 14 fire in Cat Lake First Nation that destroyed $500,000 in construction materials.
A northeastern Ontario jury has started deliberating in Canadian musician Jacob Hoggard's sexual assault trial, we can now tell you what they weren't allowed to hear.
He may not have logged the fastest time or even gone the full distance, but residents of a Newfoundland town agree the goat who unexpectedly joined the local weekend half marathon was the event's undisputed champion.
A mother in a community where the cost of living is one of the highest in the country says grocery prices are 'inhumane' and retailers are putting profits ahead of people’s basic human right to food.
A soccer game in England on Tuesday night drove a spike in online traffic across the Atlantic to a website launched by the Newfoundland and Labrador government.
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