Â鶹´«Ã½

Skip to main content

An El Nino-less summer is coming. Here's what that could mean for Canada

A windsurfer cuts through the waves along Lake Ontario overlooking the City of Toronto skyline on a warm winter day in Mississauga, Ont., Friday, Feb. 9, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette A windsurfer cuts through the waves along Lake Ontario overlooking the City of Toronto skyline on a warm winter day in Mississauga, Ont., Friday, Feb. 9, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette
Share

As Canadians brace themselves for summer temperatures, forecasters say a weakening El Nino cycle doesn’t mean relief from the heat.

The transition from El Nino to La Nina, a natural climate pattern which shifts warmer-than-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to more neutral levels, might have meant a cooler summer in generations past, but human-driven climate change is causing temperatures to continue an upward trend, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center.

Current temperature outlooks for North America are bringing the heat. Much of Canada is predicted to encounter this summer, according to forecasters including those with Environment Canada

Chillier spells may make Eastern and especially Atlantic Canada , moderating the above-average conditions predominating for most Canadians elsewhere, the Weather Network said in its May lookahead.

Hossein Bonakdari, associate professor of civil engineering at University of Ottawa, says 2023's El Nino has been “one of the strongest on record, with significant global impacts.â€

"The warming of the Pacific Ocean's surface waters has led to changes in global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in South America, droughts in Southeast Asia, and warmer temperatures in North America," he said in a December release.

Bonakdari explained that El Nino primarily impacts Western Canada, with its effects lessening as the jet stream “moves eastward.â€

Despite La Nina typically ushering in cooler and wetter conditions, rises in global temperatures can contribute to unpredictable weather patterns.

Following a mild winter with low snow levels, forecasts also suggest dryer and hotter conditions could lead to an increased risk of wildfires, prompting public policy experts to call for wildfire prevention efforts following the summer of 2023, which saw a record-breaking wildfire season.

According to the Met Office, the United Kingdom’s national weather service, the average global temperature for 2024 is expected to be between 1.34 C and 1.58 C above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).

This is the 11th consecutive year that temperatures will reach at least one degree above pre-industrial levels, the Met Office reports. 

CTVNews.ca Top Stories

Two and a half years after losing her best friend and first love to suicide, Brooke Ford shared her story of grief and resilience at the CMHA Windsor-Essex Suicide Awareness Walk.

An Ottawa driver has been charged with stunt driving after being caught going 154 km/h on Highway 417, according to the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP).

opinion

opinion How to make the most out of your TFSA

The Tax-Free Savings Account can be a powerful savings tool and investment vehicle. Financial contributor Christopher Liew explains how they work and how to take full advantage of them so you can reach your financial goals faster.

Local Spotlight

A tale about a taxicab hauling gold and sinking through the ice on Larder Lake, Ont., in December 1937 has captivated a man from that town for decades.

When a group of B.C. filmmakers set out on a small fishing boat near Powell River last week, they hoped to capture some video for a documentary on humpback whales. What happened next blew their minds.

A pizza chain in Edmonton claims to have the world's largest deliverable pizza.

Sarah McLachlan is returning to her hometown of Halifax in November.

Wayne MacKay is still playing basketball twice at Mount Allison University at 87 years old.

A man from a small rural Alberta town is making music that makes people laugh.

An Indigenous artist has a buyer-beware warning ahead of Sept. 30, the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.

Police are looking to the public for help after thieves broke into a Lethbridge ice creamery, stealing from the store.

An ordinary day on the job delivering mail in East Elmwood quickly turned dramatic for Canada Post letter carrier Jared Plourde. A woman on his route was calling out in distress.