WAKEFIELD, Que. - Mathieu Ravignat is a former communist, current karate instructor and the NDP candidate in Quebec's Pontiac riding.
The man he's trying to unseat is Canada's minister of foreign affairs.
Conservative sources say Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon is in danger of going down to defeat in his riding across the Ottawa River and west of the capital. He has been placed on the "watch list" the Tory war room keeps of incumbents that are in political peril.
Ravignat, a social sciences researcher, was nominated two weeks ago at a low-key meeting few took note of after a better-known candidate backed out.
At about the same time, Cannon was in the Middle East conferring with representatives from the world's most powerful countries on the prosecution of the war in Libya.
The affable minister has held the Pontiac riding since 2006 and delivered a serious amount of federal cash for his home region. He won Pontiac in the last election by 3,600 votes.
But Conservative sources say surprising NDP strength in the nearby ridings of Hull-Aylmer and Gatineau is spilling over into Cannon's rural, largely francophone riding.
Cannon cancelled a scheduled interview because he said he needed to concentrate his media time with local reporters.
Ravignat said the NDP surge is no surprise to him.
"There's a real sense of wanting positive change," he said in an interview during a break from shaking hands in the riding.
He says the Conservatives and the Liberals had it coming to them. But he's relishing the ride on the wave all the same.
"Clearly, it's nice to know that an increasing number of (voters), particularly Quebecers, are looking to our platform," he says.
Ravignat is not entirely without political experience. He has worked to elect NDP candidates in the past, and stood for office himself once, in 1997. He ran as an Independent to back the Communist Party.
For the record, he says he is no longer a communist and says that part of his life was during his "experimental" student years.
He can now recite the NDP party lines with ease. And he takes to mainstreeting like an old pro, introducing himself to strangers in both official languages, flattering their babies and gently explaining his party platform.
But he agrees that much of his momentum comes from the popularity of leader Jack Layton in Quebec.
"He speaks directly to people, about their issues," Ravignat says in an interview outside the fabled Black Sheep Inn by the Gatineau River. "There's a sense that he's honest."
Poll after poll has put the NDP on the rise, starting first in the province of Quebec and then spreading across the country.
The latest Harris-Decima poll for The Canadian Press puts the NDP 20 points ahead of the Bloc Quebecois and miles ahead of the Conservatives and Liberals in the province.
As a result, the chatter in Pontiac about strategic voting is everywhere. For those who want to defeat Conservatives, however, it's not immediately obvious who the best choice is -- especially in Cannon's riding.
"In the past, people have voted strategically here and Cannon got in. The vote split," says Matthew Cosgrove, sitting on a couch at Le Hibou restaurant on Wakefield's main strip.
He says he has always voted true to his conscience and supported the NDP consistently. This time, though, he's excited that he may actually see a victory -- and a fallen cabinet minister to boot.
"This time, if they get some of the French vote, he may just get it," Cosgrove said, after chatting with Ravignat.
At a packed all-candidates meeting the night before at the Black Sheep, the conversation was mainly a debate about who would be the best candidate to defeat Cannon.
Cannon was a no-show, as was the Bloc candidate, but the rest were all decent choices, said voter Heather Gibb.
"I feel very strongly about getting rid of Cannon. I, like everyone else, am trying to figure out how to get rid of him," said Gibb, from nearby Chelsea, Que.
She likes the Liberal candidate, Cindy Duncan-McMillan, because she is known in the riding and is clearly dedicated to representing local concerns. But she thinks the NDP's candidate stands a better chance of winning.
"I think he's got a pretty good chance, judging from what I heard," Gibb said. "It's all about strategic voting."
The various strategic-voting websites have been reluctant to make a call about how best to defeat Cannon. Results from previous elections suggest that either the Liberals or the NDP could place second, and that the Bloc could gather a fair chunk of votes as well.
But Liberal insiders are not optimistic about stopping the NDP these days in Quebec.
"A wave is a wave," said one source who knows the Pontiac region well. "It's difficult to stop."
