OTTAWA - Canadian home buyers have skirted the credit crunch that has devastated the market south of the border, but the U.S. woes are filtering north amid an economic slowdown this year and rising consumer bankruptcies, a CIBC report says.
"If you are a normal, regular consumer in Canada you have no problem borrowing, money is available for you,'' said economist Benjamin Tal, the author of the report.
"If you are a high-risk borrower, you face the same difficulties as the U.S. But this is such a tiny portion of borrowers in Canada and it's not really impacting the market at all.''
The report found that Canadians have kept buying homes and taking out mortgages even as the U.S. market cratered when foreclosures escalated after low introductory rates for subprime mortgages lapsed and their monthly carrying costs soared.
The last few months of 2007 saw a significant acceleration in mortgages outstanding, rising to 13 per cent for the year as a whole from 10 per cent in 2006. As well, the data for the first two months of this year suggests the trend will continue.
But the report also forecasts that the hot market is about to cool as Canadians start to feel the pinch from slower economic growth, which the CIBC predicts will average 1.6 per cent this year -- down from 2.7 per cent last year.
Ontario and Quebec -- the two most populous provinces -- will experience even slower growth at 1.3 per cent, the bank estimates.
As a result, CIBC says mortgages outstanding will increase by a relatively modest eight or nine per cent this year, with housing prices rising five per cent nationally, almost half last year's rate.
The slowing economy is also starting to be felt by Canadian households in terms of accumulating debt and higher bankruptcies.
The CIBC said overall household debt rose by almost three per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, while personal disposable income rose only 1.6 per cent.
Because of the recent downturn in the stock market and slower pace of home valuation growth, household assets rose by less than 0.5 per cent in the fourth quarter.
"It seems that the number of personal bankruptcies in 2008 will rise by four-five per cent as the slowing U.S. economy will impact overall growth in Canada, especially in Ontario and Quebec,'' the report states.
Although much higher than last year's one per cent rise in bankruptcies, Tal noted that five per cent growth in consumer bankruptcies is still a relatively modest increase in a slowing economic cycle.
