There's a new buzzword circulating amidst recession fears. It's called a "no landing" scenario, but one economist says it's so unlikely that if it happens, economists might throw away their text books.
What is a no landing? According to Sal Guatieri, senior economist and director of economics for Bank of Montreal, it's first important to understand what the opposite of it is – a "hard landing."
"Economists generally use that term to mean a pretty typical recession or worse – a standard recession where GDP could contract two to four per cent, and unemployment rate could go up two to four percentage points," Guatieri told CTVNews.ca over the phone on Monday.
Guatieri also defined an alternative situation known as a "soft landing" – when the central bank lowers inflation to the target or restores price stability without a recession
"It avoids a recession, but still requires the economy to slow and weaken to the point where the unemployment rate moves up a little bit," he said.
"Basically, the central bank tries to achieve sub-potential economic growth. So weak enough growth that cools inflation, yet still results in some increase in the unemployment rate."
In other words, a soft landing is when the economy isn't growing fast enough to accommodate all the people looking for jobs, he explained.
"Then, of course, there's a no landing. Now that's a situation that I don't know we've ever witnessed in history," Guatieri said. "Maybe in fantasy land."
A "no landing" scenario is when the economy continues to grow above normal while the unemployment rate stays low, the markets remain tight, and "inflation magically cools and goes back to the two per cent target and stays there."
"Basically, that refutes everything we've learned in economics," Guatieri said. "You could pretty well toss the economic textbooks away if we do see that situation play out."
"Now, nothing is impossible. I mean there's always a possibility of such a happening, but, again, historically it would be very rare."
From a probability standpoint, Guatieri attaches close to zero per cent odds of a no landing, which is far below the 15 per cent odds he attributes to a typical recession, and the 35 per cent chance of a soft landing.
"What we are calling for is something in the middle of a hard and soft landing, and that's a mild recession," he said. "I think that's almost a consensus view as well. [In this scenario], the economy does slip into a recession but it's very shallow, very short lived, just a couple of quarters. That's our base case forecast. We have about 50 per cent odds of that situation."
Procurement Minister and newly appointed Quebec lieutenant Jean-Yves Duclos is warning the NDP that the dental care program it helped put into place will be in jeopardy if it pulls its support from the governing Liberals.
A Nova Scotian YouTuber has launched a mini-truck bookmobile.
At least two students at Gettysburg College in Pennsylvania have been suspended from the swim team after a report that a racial slur was scratched onto a student's body, officials said.
Infectious disease physician Dr. Isaac Bogoch says whooping cough is most risky for unvaccinated infants, children and older people.
In less than two months, Americans will go to the polls to choose their next president. But the process that translates those millions of votes into one seat in the Oval Office is much more complicated than a straight tally.
Specialist divers surveying the wreckage of the US$40 million superyacht that sank off Sicily in August, killing seven people including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, have asked for heightened security to guard the vessel, over concerns that sensitive data locked in its safes may interest foreign governments, multiple sources told CNN.
Donald Trump has long pledged to deport millions of people, but he's bringing more specifics to his current bid for the White House: invoking wartime powers, relying on like-minded governors and using the military.
Kate, the Princess of Wales, made her first public appearance Sunday since she announced she had completed chemotherapy and would return to some public duties.
A new study is adding to emerging research showing that exposure to metals such as cadmium, uranium and copper may also be associated with the leading cause of death worldwide, cardiovascular disease.
A six-year-old girl who was reported missing in northern B.C. earlier this week remains unaccounted for, and "significant resources from across the province" have joined in the search, police said Saturday.
Volunteers and staff members gathered along Vancouver’s Stanley Park Seawall Saturday to pick up litter as part of International Coastal Cleanup Day.
A heritage home in Vancouver suffered "extensive damage" in a fire that broke out late Saturday morning, according to firefighters.
One person has died following a shooting in Scarborough late last night.
Toronto police have arrested three people and they are looking for two others in connection with an alleged fraud that saw a man and his daughter bilked out of more than $18,000.
A man who was critically injured in an eight-vehicle pileup in Milton Friday has died of his injuries in hospital.
Calgary mayor Jyoti Gondek is holding a 10 a.m. Sunday update where she is expected to announce the end of water restrictions.
Nick Kolomyja reckons axe throwing may have saved his life.
Calgary fire crews were busy early Sunday dealing with a fire, a missing cat and a vehicle that drove into the side of a garage.
Police are looking to speak with a female who was a passenger in a stolen vehicle that was recovered early Saturday morning in Kanata.
A body has been found in the vicinity where a woman went missing on the Ottawa River near Pembroke, Ont. while kayaking Tuesday night, according to the Ontario Provincial Police (OPP).
It's been one year since Michael Andlauer took over ownership of the Ottawa Senators and on Saturday, he spoke for the first time about the tentative deal for a new arena at LeBreton Flats.
Last month’s massive water main break in Montreal’s Ville Marie borough has left the company Cirque Eloize reeling, with nearly 10,000 items from their storage facility destroyed.
Pasquale Monaco says he’s debating whether to keep renting out the two-bedroom basement apartment of the Montreal building he owns after it was flooded — again — in August, when the remnants of tropical storm Debby sent four feet of water rushing into the space.
A 19-year-old man is in critical condition after being stabbed in Montreal on Saturday.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have a nickname for the opposition’s end zone. They refer to it as the “chicken box.â€
Nick Kolomyja reckons axe throwing may have saved his life.
The number of Edmontonians experiencing homelessness has risen 47 per cent this year, according to data from the city's main housing agency.
The Celtic Colours International Festival will return to Cape Breton, N.S., for nine days from Oct. 11 to 19, with hundreds of events and performances scheduled to take place in communities around the island.
A Nova Scotian YouTuber has launched a mini-truck bookmobile.
A 76-year-old man who was reported missing Saturday in Annapolis District, N.S., has been found deceased.
The search for a missing six-year-old boy in Shamattawa is continuing Friday as RCMP hope recent tips can help lead to a happy conclusion.
While slang may come and go, experts say the phenomenon behind them, which constantly churns out brand-new bon mots, is as old as language itself.
People living in Winnipeg’s Centennial neighbourhood have a new park to call their own. On Saturday, the community celebrated the grand opening of Giizhigooweyaabikwe Park on Lizzie Street.
Fire officials are investigating after a fire completely destroyed the community fridge in the Cathedral neighborhood.
The last two months after losing her daughter Bella have been extremely difficult for Kyla Thomson.
Regina police arrested three youths in connection to a bear mace incident at a Regina high school on Friday.
Brantford, Ont. residents were met with an unexpected sight on Saturday evening as a suspected funnel cloud appeared in the skies above the city.
Police were called to a business in the area of University Avenue East and Weber Street North at around 10:40 p.m. Saturday for a report of a man attempting to stab another man.
Police said the pedestrian, a 52-year-old man, was taken to an out-of-region hospital with life-threatening injuries and the driver of the vehicle failed to remain at the scene.
The 75-year-old building, formerly the Waskesiu Chamber of Commerce building, was relocated to the Parks Canada compound on the edge of the townsite.
Saskatchewan RCMP major crimes unit is investigating after a man’s body was found on Sweetgrass First Nation.
Motors were roaring, and tires were spinning as Saskatoon's biggest names in motocross gathered together for the 50-year anniversary of the club's founding on Saturday.
Ontario’s police watchdog is investigating after an Ontario Provincial Police officer discharged his firearm at a 36-year-old man in near Moonbeam, Ont., on Friday night.
Procurement Minister and newly appointed Quebec lieutenant Jean-Yves Duclos is warning the NDP that the dental care program it helped put into place will be in jeopardy if it pulls its support from the governing Liberals.
For some young people, a popular method for getting a quick high is by misusing laughing gas — and lately, that’s in the form of nitrous oxide from products sold by the company Galaxy Gas.
The most popular hockey podcasters on the planet brought some major attention to the Forest City this weekend with the annual Chiclets Cup.
The identity of a motorcyclist has been revealed by loved ones on social media following Friday’s fatal south end collision in London. The London Police Service has not released anything regarding the driver’s identity.
Huron County OPP are investigating a serious single vehicle collision that took place west of Seaforth.
The Barrie Skateboard Association (BSA) hosted a unique competition at the City's Skate Park on Saturday to celebrate its 25th anniversary, which showcased the park's importance and the growth of skateboarding in the region.
Police located and arrested a male suspect Saturday evening in relation to an alleged assault incident that occurred earlier this week in Gooderham.
A man is facing numerous drug trafficking charges after Dufferin OPP seized a large assortment of drugs and weapons in Orangeville earlier this week.
Windsor firefighters had an early start to the day as a fire broke out in the 1500 block of Pellissier Street in the city.
The Amherstburg Uncommon Festival is living up to its name with the addition of a drone light show — a first for Essex County.
The Chatham-Kent Police Service (CKPS) has arrested a man following an incident on Saturday.
A man who was found dead behind a curling rink in Nanaimo, B.C., earlier this month was the victim of a homicide, police confirmed.
A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.
A six-year-old girl who was reported missing in northern B.C. earlier this week remains unaccounted for, and "significant resources from across the province" have joined in the search, police said Saturday.
A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.
The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.
Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.
Despite the heavy rain, plenty of muscle turned up for United Way’s annual Pull the Bus fundraiser in Lethbridge Friday.
Lethbridge County has rescinded its fire restriction as a result of the recent cool, wet weathr.
The Lethbridge Hurricanes kicked off the 2024-25 season on a winning note Friday night, defeating the Edmonton Oil Kings 3-1 in a game played at VisitLethbridge.com Arena.
A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.
Following an outbreak of COVID-19 on its continuing care floor and just ahead of the flu season, St. Joseph’s General Hospital in Elliot Lake has opted to re-introduce a universal masking policy until further notice.
A 26-year-old driver from Surrey, B.C., has been charged with three counts of criminal negligence causing death and bodily harm in a crash that killed two youths in northern Ontario last year.
Newfoundland and Labrador sponsored a minor football team in England, now they’re about to play one of the biggest clubs in European soccer.
Newfoundland and Labrador's chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
A 16-year-old biennial event aimed at fostering business in the country's eastern Arctic and northern regions has been cancelled indefinitely as a dispute unfolds between Inuit in Canada and a Labrador group claiming to share their heritage.
Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.
Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.
An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.
Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.
The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.
The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is set to be in New York this week for the 78th meeting of the United Nations General Assembly and the Summit of the Future amid increasing geopolitical instability around the world.
A $2.14-billion federal loan for an Ottawa-based satellite operator has Canadian politicians arguing about whether American billionaire Elon Musk poses a national security risk.
Procurement Minister and newly appointed Quebec lieutenant Jean-Yves Duclos is warning the NDP that the dental care program it helped put into place will be in jeopardy if it pulls its support from the governing Liberals.
Body mass index, a long-time tool used to measure a person's health, may soon be out the door as some health professionals push for a system they say is more accurate.
Infectious disease physician Dr. Isaac Bogoch says whooping cough is most risky for unvaccinated infants, children and older people.
A morning cup of coffee may do more than just perk you up, according to new research.
If something looks too good to be true, it might be. That's the message from Saskatchewan horticulturists after customers have come into their stores hoping to buy purple apple trees this month.
The owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear power plant said Friday that it plans to restart the reactor under a 20-year agreement that calls for tech giant Microsoft to buy the power to supply its data centers with carbon-free energy.
Lebanese authorities on Thursday banned walkie-talkies and pagers from being taken on flights from Beirut airport, the National News Agency reported, after thousands of such devices exploded during a deadly attack on Hezbollah this week.
A Nova Scotian YouTuber has launched a mini-truck bookmobile.
Kathryn Crosby, who appeared in such movies as 'The 7th Voyage of Sinbad', 'Anatomy of a Murder,' and 'Operation Mad Ball' before marrying famed singer and Oscar-winning actor Bing Crosby, has died. She was 90.fff
'Saturday Night Live' will have a slew of famous faces to help kick off its historic 50th season when the show returns later this month.
It’s not easy going up against Canada’s banking oligopoly, but some are trying.
It is not a great time to be a coffee drinker. In general, coffee bean prices are the highest they've been in more than a decade.
The maker of the popular party game Cards Against Humanity is accusing Elon Musk's SpaceX of trespassing on and damaging a plot of vacant land the company owns in Texas.
Nick Kolomyja reckons axe throwing may have saved his life.
More than 2,200 zoo professionals from 23 different countries have gathered in Calgary for the annual Association of Zoos and Aquariums conference.
Tattoos are becoming more common in today's society and, as a result, appear to be more acceptable in the workplace than they used to be.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have a nickname for the opposition’s end zone. They refer to it as the “chicken box.â€
Jonathan Aranda homered for the second consecutive game, helping Taj Bradley and the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2 on Saturday.
Kiefer Sherwood spent several nights last spring chasing Quinn Hughes around the ice and generally pestering the Vancouver Canucks.
General Motors (GM) has issued a recall for 38,000 vehicles for safety risks related to a software glitch, Transport Canada reported in a notice on Wednesday.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has accused Tesla CEO Elon Musk of 'remotely disabling' his Cybertruck, which had been sent to the frontline of Russia's war in Ukraine.
An Ontario man says it is 'unfair' to pay a $1,500 insurance surcharge because his four-year-old SUV is at a higher risk of being stolen.
The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at Â鶹´«Ã½. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.
