Â鶹´«Ã½

Business

    • What new central bank surveys say about consumer recession, inflation expectations

    Share
    OTTAWA -

    Fewer consumers and businesses are expecting a recession compared to last quarter, according to two surveys released by the Bank of Canada on Friday.

    One third of firms are preparing for a recession compared to one half at the beginning of the year, and 50 per cent of consumers are now expecting a recession compared to 58 per cent at the beginning of 2023.

    think the worst is behind them and have a better outlook on the future of the economy, with the expectation that interest rates will drop 12 months from now.

    In the short-term, the cost of living remains the number one key issue for consumers. The cost of groceries remains a concern and the value of financial assets, such as pension funds, has seen a decline.

    Variable rate mortgage holders are feeling the most impact from elevated interest rates and are more likely to cut back on spending.

    “Interest on our variable-rate mortgage went from 2.6 per cent to 6 per cent,†one respondent from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations said. “This is a huge increase. We are not able to go to restaurants anymore or go on vacations because we need to be able to pay our mortgage.â€

    about slowing demand, with one fifth of them now expecting an outright decline in sales. This is particularly felt by firms who rely on consumer discretionary spending which has been hit by higher interest rates.

    However, many businesses are also optimistic about domestic demand moving forward, pointing to fewer concerns about a recession and less uncertainty around the future path of interest rates, according to the central bank. Despite this, wage expectations from consumers remain high because of labour churn which puts upward pressure on salaries.

    Consumers remain pessimistic about inflation, with 44 per cent expecting inflation to remain elevated above 5 per cent over the next two years. In the business sector, 30 per cent of firms anticipate inflation will decline to between 2 to 3 per cent over the next two years. The Consumer Price Index stood at 3.4 per cent in May down from 4.4 per cent in April, according to Statistics Canada.

    Despite this improvement, around 16 per cent of businesses expect inflation to persist into 2028 and beyond, with firms pointing to high government spending and strong demand in housing as the main causes.

    Businesses are also less concerned about labour shortages compared to a year ago, thanks to increased immigration and with less firms planning to grow their staffing levels. For the first time since before the COVID-19 pandemic, firms expect slower wage growth over the next 12 months and anticipate wage growth to slow more by 2025-26.  

    There are signs that pressures in the labour market are easing. Statistics Canada reported job vacancies have dropped by 8.4 per cent between January and April of this year.

    CTVNews.ca Top Stories

    A team of tornado experts is heading to Fergus, Ont. after a storm ripped through the area Sunday night.

    Why brain aging can vary dramatically between people

    Researchers are uncovering deeper insights into how the human brain ages and what factors may be tied to healthier cognitive aging, including exercising, avoiding tobacco, speaking a second language or even playing a musical instrument.

    Canada

    • A team of tornado experts is heading to Fergus, Ont. after a storm ripped through the area Sunday night.

    • Two nephews of the beloved Harry R. Hamilton share stories about his life and legacy.

    • The union representing some 1,200 dockworkers at the Port of Montreal has overwhelmingly rejected a deal with their employers association.

    • A man who was critically injured in a police-involved shooting in Hamilton late Sunday afternoon has died in hospital, says the province’s police watchdog.

    World

    Politics

    • Murray Sinclair’s family members say the late justice and senator has been laid to rest according to his wishes.

    • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced voters in Cloverdale—Langley City will pick their next member of Parliament on Dec. 16.

    Health

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    Business

    Lifestyle

    Sports

    Autos

    Local Spotlight

    For the second year in a row, the ‘Gift-a-Family’ campaign is hoping to make the holidays happier for children and families in need throughout Barrie.

    Some of the most prolific photographers behind CTV Skywatch Pics of the Day use the medium for fun, therapy, and connection.

    A young family from Codroy Valley, N.L., is happy to be on land and resting with their newborn daughter, Miley, after an overwhelming, yet exciting experience at sea.

    As Connor Nijsse prepared to remove some old drywall during his garage renovation, he feared the worst.

    A group of women in Chester, N.S., has been busy on the weekends making quilts – not for themselves, but for those in need.

    A Vancouver artist whose streetside singing led to a chance encounter with one of the world's biggest musicians is encouraging aspiring performers to try their hand at busking.

    Ten-thousand hand-knit poppies were taken from the Sanctuary Arts Centre and displayed on the fence surrounding the Dartmouth Cenotaph on Monday.

    A Vancouver man is saying goodbye to his nine-to-five and embarking on a road trip from the Canadian Arctic to Antarctica.

    • LIVE

      LIVE

      Thousands of people are gathered in downtown Vancouver to observe the city’s 100th Remembrance Day ceremony.

    • A suspect was arrested for allegedly brandishing a knife outside a Vancouver elementary school on Friday – just as the young students were heading home for the day.

    • The federal government is urging both sides in the British Columbia port dispute to return to the table after mediated talks broke off on Saturday, the first of three scheduled days.

    • Several hundred people gathered outside the Ontario legislature in Toronto to honour veterans and remember those who died fighting for their country.

    • Toronto is expected to see an economic boost to the tune of nearly $300 million thanks to Taylor Swift’s upcoming Eras Tour, which will be making a stop in Canada’s largest city for a six-show run later this month.

    • A man believed to be in his 40s has been rushed to a trauma centre following a stabbing in downtown Toronto.

    • Calgarians will be observing Remembrance Day at a number of different ceremonies across the city, including at the Hangar Flight Museum.

    • July 2025 may seem like it’s in the distant future, but for the St. Luke playground committee time is ticking to fundraise the $340,000 they still need to build a new playground.

    • Getting out to the mountains is even easier with a new bus route from a growing Germany-based service.

    • Crowds gathered in Ottawa and eastern Ontario on Monday to honour the sacrifice of men and women in uniform who gave their lives in service of Canada.

    • CTVNewsOttawa.ca looks at Remembrance Day ceremonies in Ottawa.

    • After months of controversy surrounding a dog park in Ottawa's west end, a solution has been reached to divide the park in half.

    • A 36-year-old Montreal man who was out on bail after allegedly uttering death threats to a woman is now accused of murdering her on the South Shore.

    • With fewer interments and rising maintenance fees, the money for Canada's largest military cemetery will run out in three to four years.

    • Montreal Metro passengers can now flag a safety concern by texting a new phone number launched by the STM.

    • A member of Canadian Forces Base (CFB) Edmonton participated in the national Remembrance Day Ceremony in Ottawa on Monday.

    • WEATHER

      WEATHER

      This is shaping up to be one of the warmest Remembrance Days in the past decade, at least, for temperatures.

    • Thousands of Maritimers turned out in wet weather Monday to remember those who have served, and continue to serve, in Canada's armed forces for Remembrance Day.

    • A Cape Breton senior recalls her life in German-occupied France, and her mother’s death, during the Second World War.

    • Thousand of people gathered at the Menin Gate in the Ypres, Belgium for Monday’s Remembrance Day Ceremony.

    • Remembrance Day is today, and a number of ceremonies are taking place around the province to honour those who gave their lives to serve our country.

    • A pillar in Canada’s history was honoured in Winnipeg Sunday afternoon, with thousands showing up to pay tribute to the life and legacy of the late Murray Sinclair.

    • One Manitoba veteran is on a mission to commemorate and honour those who served our country, and not just on Remembrance Day.

    • There will be two ceremonies taking place in Regina for Remembrance Day, hosted by the Royal Canadian Legion.

    • Regina author Valerie Crowther is celebrating the release of her book ‘War Letters: Linking Lives in the Second World War.’

    • It was a somber day at Mosaic Stadium as members of the Saskatchewan Roughriders officially cleaned out their stalls and closed the book on the 2024 season.

    • Saskatchewan RCMP are searching for a suspect after a man was seriously injured in a farm-related incident in Montreal Lake.

    • It was a somber day at Mosaic Stadium as members of the Saskatchewan Roughriders officially cleaned out their stalls and closed the book on the 2024 season.

    • The Regina Rams claimed the Hardy Cup after a hard fought battle against the Saskatoon Huskies 19-14 on Saturday in the first all Saskatchewan U-Sports western conference final since 2002.

    • Emergency crews responded to the scene on Road 68/Highway 2 east of Thamesford around 7 p.m.

    • The events will start at 10:15 a.m. with a parade that forms up in front of the Delta London Armories, marches east on Dundas Street and turns north onto Waterloo Street to Dufferin Avenue, the west to the Cenotaph.

    • A team of tornado experts is heading to Fergus, Ont. after a storm ripped through the area Sunday night.

    • A Barrie man is at the centre of an alleged $2.2 million stolen used car scheme.

    • Environment Canada issued a weather alert for Barrie, Collingwood and surrounding areas, alerting residents about the wicked winds that are expected to pick up to 80 kilometres per hour in the afternoon hours.

    • Barrie residents gathered on Monday to honour Canada’s veterans and pay tribute to those who served and sacrificed for the country.

    • Representatives of the Windsor Veterans Memorial Services Committee, military representatives, wreath bearers, government officials, and members of the public will attend the Cenotaph at City Hall Square for the outdoor service.

    • Windsor Paralympic champion, Danielle Campo, has been crowned the number one Inspirational Speaker of the Year for 2024 at the Inspirational Speaking Finals.

    • One person has been arrested after Chatham-Kent Police Service (CKPS) received multiple complaints about an alleged drunk driver.

    • Environment Canada says heavy rain and winds could cause power outages on Vancouver Island as an "intense" storm system is set to hit the B.C. coast Sunday.

    • Six deer were struck by vehicles in six different locations in a six-hour period on B.C. highways on Saturday, according to the transportation ministry.

    • The union for locked-out port workers in British Columbia says the BC Maritime Employers Association cut off talks in less than an hour Saturday, refusing to budge on a final offer that the union has so far rejected.

    • The emergency department at South Okanagan General Hospital in Oliver, B.C., will be closed for 31 hours this weekend, the second such closure in a week and the third since the start of November.

    • Police in Kamloops, B.C., are reminding parents and guardians to check their children's Halloween candy after receiving a report of a mother finding a razor blade in one of her daughter's treats.

    • More than two years after Alannah Brown and Douglas Barker were found dead north of Penticton, police are asking for help identifying a vehicle they believe was associated with the crime.

    • The Southern Alberta Recreation Association is officially announcing the Town of Taber as next year’s host for the Southern Alberta Summer Games.

    • The Lethbridge Hurricanes broke open a close game with three goals in the first two minutes of the third period as they defeated the Warriors 7-3 in a game played Friday night in Moose Jaw.

    • There might not a lot snow just yet, but many southern Albertans are still itching to get outdoors.

    • It was just days before the COVID-19 pandemic shut the world down when the Shaft Bottom Boys of Sudbury broke a world record for 'Deepest Concert Underground.' Now, more than four years later, a Timmins band is looking to take the title.

    • Police have arrested a 15-year-old in connection with a break-in and $50,000 in damage done to the Centennial Arena in Elliot Lake in September.

    • Mayors of the five largest cities in northern Ontario met in North Bay the last two days to discuss a range of critical issues impacting their cities and the region.

    N.L.

    Shopping Trends

    The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at Â鶹´«Ã½. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.

    Stay Connected
    Follow Â鶹´«Ã½