Â鶹´«Ã½

Business

    • Scotiabank chief economist says another BoC rate hike is 'required,' but not everyone agrees

    Share

    Economists are offering differing opinions on whether the Bank of Canada should raise interest rates again after a slight uptick to the annual pace of inflation last month.

    On Thursday, Scotiabank's chief economist released his forecast, arguing that Canada's central bank "no longer has the luxury to wait to see how the balance of inflation risks evolves in coming months."

    "As a result, we now think a 25 basis points move is required at the June meeting," Jean-François Perrault wrote in a research note to investors Thursday. "Governor (Tiff) Macklem should leave the door clearly open to additional moves should those be required. We continue to expect the policy rate will be cut early next year and see little chance of a cut this year.

    "That being said, this move is best seen as insurance against inflation. Our model does not indicate a need for higher rates despite the April inflation shock and other developments."

    The annual inflation rate rose in April for the first time since it peaked in June last year. The consumer price index rose to 4.4 per cent in April compared to a year ago, up from 4.3 per cent in March.

    On top of that, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that home sales in April jumped 11.3 per cent from the previous month, with the average home price up more than $100,000 compared to January.

    Last month, the Bank of Canada announced it would hold its key interest rate at 4.5 per cent for now and said it expects the annual inflation rate to come down to about three per cent in the coming months.

    But Macklem has said further rate hikes are possible if inflation remains stuck above the bank's two per cent target.

    Statistics Canada says higher mortgage interest costs and rent prices partly drove the increase in annual inflation in April.

    Perrault says while one month "definitely does not make a trend," the April figure did cause it to raise its forecast for core inflation to 3.9 per cent for 2023 and 2.3 per cent in 2024.

    "The rise in inflation and perhaps more importantly the surge in housing market activity and still robust employment markets suggest that risks around the Bank of Canada's inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, as we have long argued," Perrault said.

    "With inflation on a gradual downward path so far this year, the risks to the inflation outlook were manageable at current policy rate settings."

    Scotiabank economists say they continue to believe that a mild recession is likely for Canada beginning in the second quarter of the year, "though economic indicators remain reasonably positive." They forecast a "historically modest" increase to the unemployment rate from five per cent currently to 5.7 per cent by the end of the year.

    A separate analysis from BMO's chief economist, , says it does not believe the fundamental inflation outlook has changed.

    "We would never dream of saying 'we told you so,' but we have been loudly warning for months that it was not going to be a straight-line, bump-free descent for inflation back to the two per cent target," BMO's Douglas Porter said in a research note.

    Porter says it is "almost certain that headline inflation will take a mighty step down next month," potentially by a full percentage point into the low threes.

    "And a few analysts are now openly calling for the Bank to start hiking rates again as soon as the June 7 meeting. That would likely be a mistake, and a better option would be to at least await the May jobs and CPI data, not to mention an early look at Q2 GDP, for a more complete picture of how the economy is faring," Porter said.

    Another factor to consider in terms of rate hikes, Porter notes, is whether the United States defaults due to its ongoing dispute over raising the debt ceiling.

    With files from The Canadian Press and The Associated Press

    CTVNews.ca Top Stories

    An Edmonton man says he was in the wrong place at the wrong time when he was injured by members of the Edmonton Police Service last year.

    Toronto police say they are searching for a suspect who allegedly shot and killed his brother in an argument at a Scarborough housing complex late Saturday night.

    Ontario's police watchdog has decided there are no grounds to believe Sudbury police committed a crime during a difficult arrest in May where the suspect's neck was broken.

    Canada

    • Ontario's police watchdog has decided there are no grounds to believe Sudbury police committed a crime during a difficult arrest in May where the suspect's neck was broken.

    • The City of Calgary ended water restrictions for the city at a Sunday morning update.

    • Toronto police say they are searching for a suspect who allegedly shot and killed his brother in an argument at a Scarborough housing complex late Saturday night.

    • A man is facing numerous drug trafficking charges after Dufferin OPP seized a large assortment of drugs and weapons in Orangeville earlier this week.

    • Pasquale Monaco says he’s debating whether to keep renting out the two-bedroom basement apartment of the Montreal building he owns after it was flooded — again — in August, when the remnants of tropical storm Debby sent four feet of water rushing into the space.

    • Infectious disease physician Dr. Isaac Bogoch says whooping cough is most risky for unvaccinated infants, children and older people.

    World

    Politics

    Health

    Sci-Tech

    Entertainment

    Business

    Lifestyle

    Sports

    • The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have a nickname for the opposition’s end zone. They refer to it as the “chicken box.â€

    • Jonathan Aranda homered for the second consecutive game, helping Taj Bradley and the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Toronto Blue Jays 3-2 on Saturday.

    • Kiefer Sherwood spent several nights last spring chasing Quinn Hughes around the ice and generally pestering the Vancouver Canucks.

    Autos

    Local Spotlight

    Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.

    Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.

    An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.

    They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.

    A growing group of brides and wedding photographers from across the province say they have been taken for tens of thousands of dollars by a Barrie, Ont. wedding photographer.

    Paleontologists from the Royal B.C. Museum have uncovered "a trove of extraordinary fossils" high in the mountains of northern B.C., the museum announced Thursday.

    The search for a missing ancient 28-year-old chocolate donkey ended with a tragic discovery Wednesday.

    The Royal Canadian Mounted Police is celebrating an important milestone in the organization's history: 50 years since the first women joined the force.

    It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.

    • One man is dead and another injured after a shooting in Langley Saturday evening that homicide investigators say is gang-related.

    • Anyone needing emergency care in a city in B.C.’s southern Interior will need to seek help elsewhere until Monday, as the latest ER closure in the region has shuttered the department’s doors for 25 hours.

    • Work crews have been busy in the British Columbia legislature over the summer, prying apart desks in the historic chamber and piling them up in hallways as they tried to work out how to fit in six more seats.

    • Toronto police say they are searching for a suspect who allegedly shot and killed his brother in an argument at a Scarborough housing complex late Saturday night.

    • Roads have reopened near Union Station following a suspicious package investigation on Sunday afternoon.

    • Toronto police have arrested three people and they are looking for two others in connection with an alleged fraud that saw a man and his daughter bilked out of more than $18,000.

    • The City of Calgary ended water restrictions for the city at a Sunday morning update.

    • Nearly 100 Inglewood residents rallied Saturday afternoon in a continuing effort to save the Inglewood Aquatic Centre.

    • Nick Kolomyja reckons axe throwing may have saved his life.

    • Thousands participated in the 17th annual Canada Army Run Sunday in the capital's downtown.

    • A local vendors market with a Taylor Swift theme took place this Sunday in Ottawa.

    • Police are looking to speak with a female who was a passenger in a stolen vehicle that was recovered early Saturday morning in Kanata.

    • Provincial police (SQ) are looking for 29-year-old Kelsey Watt, who went missing in Hemmingford, Que.

    • Nearly 15,000 runners pounded the pavement on Sunday in the 32nd edition of Montreal’s Bereva Marathon.

    • Â鶹´«Ã½ Montreal at Six for Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024 with anchor Matt Gilmour.

    • An Edmonton man says he was in the wrong place at the wrong time when he was injured by members of the Edmonton Police Service last year.

    • The number of Edmontonians experiencing homelessness has risen 47 per cent this year, according to data from the city's main housing agency.

    • One person is dead after an early morning crash in west Edmonton.

    • Saint John Theatre Company’s “Waiting for Godot†stars former "Corner Gas" star Eric Peterson, and R.H. Thomson, known for his role in "Anne with an E."

    • A 76-year-old man who was reported missing Saturday in Annapolis District, N.S., has been found deceased.

    • Manitoba RCMP and community members are still feverishly searching for a six-year-old boy who went missing five days ago.

    • Winnipeg police called in the bomb unit Saturday night after a suspicious item was found in a Centennial neighbourhood back lane.

    • While slang may come and go, experts say the phenomenon behind them, which constantly churns out brand-new bon mots, is as old as language itself.

    • Fire officials are investigating after a fire completely destroyed the community fridge in the Cathedral neighbourhood.

    • The last two months after losing her daughter Bella have been extremely difficult for Kyla Thomson.

    • Regina police arrested three youths in connection to a bear mace incident at a Regina high school on Friday.

    • Brantford, Ont. residents were met with an unexpected sight on Saturday evening as a suspected funnel cloud appeared in the skies above the city.

    • Police were called to a business in the area of University Avenue East and Weber Street North at around 10:40 p.m. Saturday for a report of a man attempting to stab another man.

    • Police said the pedestrian, a 52-year-old man, was taken to an out-of-region hospital with life-threatening injuries and the driver of the vehicle failed to remain at the scene.

    • A 14-year-old girl from Flying Dust First Nation was killed after a high-speed ATV struck a ditch near Meadow Lake.

    • The 75-year-old building, formerly the Waskesiu Chamber of Commerce building, was relocated to the Parks Canada compound on the edge of the townsite.

    • A 53-year-old woman from north Vancouver, B.C. was killed after a semi and truck collided on Highway 16 near Dafoe.

    • There were no injuries reported after a home on Regent Street near Douglas Street in Greater Sudbury’s west end on Sunday morning.

    • Ontario’s police watchdog is investigating after an Ontario Provincial Police officer discharged his firearm at a 36-year-old man in near Moonbeam, Ont., on Friday night.

    • Wage increases, new paid holidays and a big signing bonus are part of the new contract for CAMI employees in Ingersoll, Ont.

    • video

      video

      The most popular hockey podcasters on the planet brought some major attention to the Forest City this weekend with the annual Chiclets Cup.

    • The identity of a motorcyclist has been revealed by loved ones on social media following Friday’s fatal south end collision in London. The London Police Service has not released anything regarding the driver’s identity.

    • One man is in police custody after fabricating a story to police and reporting his vehicle was stolen.

    • Fire crews worked to extinguish a fire at a tent encampment in Barrie on Sunday.

    • A year after being recognized as one of 19 ‘Bee Campuses’ by Bee City Canada, Georgian College continues to promote the importance of bees to agriculture, the economy and education.

    • Essex-Windsor Emergency Medical Services (EMS) is reporting that it’s above the provincial target for sudden cardiac arrest response times.

    • video

      video

      The Amherstburg Uncommon Festival is living up to its name with the addition of a drone light show — a first for Essex County.

    • The St. Clair College Saints were in Oshawa over the weekend as they faced Durham College.

    • Work crews have been busy in the British Columbia legislature over the summer, prying apart desks in the historic chamber and piling them up in hallways as they tried to work out how to fit in six more seats.

    • The leaders of British Columbia's two main political parties are focusing on the challenges facing Metro Vancouver communities as the provincial election campaign enters its second day.

    • A Victoria woman is now $1 million richer after winning a Maxmillions prize on a recent Lotto Max Draw.

    • A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.

    • The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.

    • Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.

    • Despite the heavy rain, plenty of muscle turned up for United Way’s annual Pull the Bus fundraiser in Lethbridge Friday.

    • Lethbridge County has rescinded its fire restriction as a result of the recent cool, wet weathr.

    • The Lethbridge Hurricanes kicked off the 2024-25 season on a winning note Friday night, defeating the Edmonton Oil Kings 3-1 in a game played at VisitLethbridge.com Arena.

    • The Royal Canadian Mint has introduced its latest Gold Maple Leaf bullion coin – made entirely from gold sourced from a single mine in northern Ontario

    • A northern Ontario man is facing a $12,000 fine after illegally shooting a moose near the Batchawan River.

    • Following an outbreak of COVID-19 on its continuing care floor and just ahead of the flu season, St. Joseph’s General Hospital in Elliot Lake has opted to re-introduce a universal masking policy until further notice.

    N.L.

    Shopping Trends

    The Shopping Trends team is independent of the journalists at Â鶹´«Ã½. We may earn a commission when you use our links to shop. Read about us.

    Stay Connected
    Follow Â鶹´«Ã½