TORONTO -- Depending on who you are and where you are, the pandemic has either improved your financial situation or the perfect storm could be looming.
Lockdowns, restrictions and few places to spend money has many Canadians sitting on an unexpected accumulation of savings. Household spending contracted by about $50 billion, according to Statistics Canada, while over the same time the average disposable income in the first 9 months of 2020 was up year over year by $100 billion.
The net result is $150 billion in household savings. Helping things out are the generous government bailouts, red hot real estate prices and stock-market gains.
Some household have been experiencing financial flexibility, maybe for the first time ever. Sure there may be pent up demand and spending will return, but that won't be released until a vaccine takes hold and the economy opens up. There is too much uncertainty and those savings are likely going to continue to grow.
On the other hand you have Canadians who are struggling. are rising, job losses in December totalled 63,000 with 62,000 coming from the self-employed. Canadians who are living close to the margin are dealing with in the end of payment deferrals, CERB paybacks, tax season looming and post-holiday bills rolling in.
It isn't a question of when this storm will come for those who are struggling, but when.
In the meantime, the consensus from the is the short term for our economy is going to be challenging given the rise in COVID-19 cases and spending will not likely pick up until the end of 2021 or even into 2022. Bankers and economists all seem to agree 2021 will be a better year for the economy and a lot of that has to do with pent up demand but they also acknowledge that won't be unleashed until we have some clarity on the horizon and the pandemic is under control.
It isn't all rosy. There is belief the generous government bailout packages have reduced the number delinquencies and insolvencies both at the consumer and small business level. Debt has been racking up in a effort to stay afloat. Business models at the banks are adjusting their loan loss provisions higher in anticipation of the potential credit trouble that lies ahead.
At times it can appear there is a denial of what is really happening to many in our country while the uncertainty mounts.
My hope is that sectors being crushed, such as small business, hospitality and transportation, get the financial aid they need, and in turn jobs will be created and opportunities created for those hit the hardest.
In a best case scenario, the pandemic gets under control, the economy opens up and all Canadians can get back their lives.
