HUNTSVILLE, ONT. -- What a difference a year makes financially speaking.
The pandemic has destroyed lives, altered our financial landscape, and yet through it all, it hasn't been all bad news.
Let's break it down: the good, the bad and the ugly.
THE GOOD:
Canadians are saving more. A lot more. With savings rising to unprecedented levels. "Canadians' financial health is highlighted by a mountain of $150 billion in excess savings," said Doug Porter, chief economist, BMO Financial Group.
In part, of course, because there is nowhere to spend money with lockdown measures in place. Savings have become a default. After debt to disposable income levels hit record highs, this forced spending pause was needed as households rebalanced financial priorities with a clearer definition of the things they needed to have and the things they simply wanted to have.
Government measures and financial support through mortgage deferrals have proven to be a financial lifeline to many, resulting in fewer bankruptcies and insolvencies with those once living very close to the margin still experiencing a little financial wiggle room.
Working from home has put a spotlight on how and where we want to live, work and even play. Real estate has been a pillar of strength in the economy due in part to a low interest rate environment coupled with higher employment in white collar jobs. The rise in prices appears to be based more on fundamentals than speculation as home prices in many parts of the country hit record highs.
Investors are happy with the recovery in the markets. The S&P/TSX year over year is up approximately 4.5 per cent. Enthusiasm around stimulus required to prop up the economy, vaccine potential and a ridiculously low interest rate for savers aligned to take the markets off their lows witnessed back in March. This has proven once again the thesis of a buy and hold strategy: buying good quality stocks and holding over time without fear and emotion dictating your decision to sell at exactly the wrong time.
THE BAD:
We aren't spending and the Canadian economy needs those who can afford to spend, to spend.
Now it doesn't mean we weren't spending at all, because we were, which is why this is bad and not ugly. We spent on furniture, appliances, outdoor apparel and equipment. Any goods and services that supported working from home and physical distancing. At the same time, even if in the past you didn't shop online, you are now. Just about everyone jumped on the e-commerce bandwagon with online sales escalating 74 per cent in the third quarter, a trend that appears to be sticking.
Slammed were those in hospitality, especially restaurants, hotels, catering, gyms, arts and recreation, to name a few. Some business owners who are hanging by a thread are able to do so through the support of the shop local mantra that many have adopted. And signs are growing this consumer behaviour will stick and will go a long way in supporting the economy when things open back up.
THE UGLY:
The virus continues to rage on and while the first lockdown was tough the second has become near catastrophic for small business owners. According to StatsCan, 58,000 businesses became inactive between January and September 2020. That means they stopped filing a payroll. It doesn’t necessarily mean they have closed for good but it’s a close indicator.
Add to this, according to the CFIB, one in six small business owners are now contemplating shutting their doors for good. That translates into 181,000 owners, who employ 2.4 million Canadians -- or 20 per cent of private sector employees -- on top of the losses already endured. That would bring the total to 239,000 small businesses severely impacted and potentially disappearing due to pandemic.
Low-income earners have been hit hard while higher-income earners have continued to move forward despite the pandemic. Targeted government aid will likely need to be focused toward those in tourism, entertainment, sports, retail, restaurant workers and so on, the Canadians who continue to be hit hardest financially by the virus as they try to figure out next steps.
We are a year into a crisis that could never have been predicted. A recovery in 2021 is contingent on a vaccine taking hold, the economy opening back up, and the belief there are brighter days ahead.
