The World Bank reported on Monday that oil prices could be pushed into "uncharted waters" if the violence between Israel and Hamas widens, which could result in increased food prices worldwide.
The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook found that while the effects on oil prices should be limited if the conflict doesn't expand, the outlook "would darken quickly if the conflict were to escalate."
The attack on Israel by the militant organization Hamas and the ensuing Israel military operation against Hamas have raised fears of a wider Mideast conflict.
And the threat of escalation looms. Israeli tanks and infantry pushed into Gaza over the weekend as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a "second stage" in the war. Hamas officials have called for more regional assistance from allies, including Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The World Bank report simulates three scenarios for the global oil supply in the event of a small, medium or large disruption.
Effects should be limited if the conflict doesn't widen in a "small disruption" scenario -- as oil prices are expected to decline to an average of US$81 a barrel next year, the World Bank estimates.
But during a "medium disruption" -- equivalent to the disruptions experienced during the Iraq war -- the global oil supply would decline by 3 million to 5 million barrels per day, driving oil prices up possibly by 35 per cent.
In a "large disruption" scenario -- comparable to the Arab oil embargo of 1973 -- the global oil supply would shrink by 6 million to 8 million barrels per day and prices could go up by 56 per cent to 75 per cent, or US$140 to US$157 a barrel, according to the report.
Indermit Gill, the World Bank's chief economist, said Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already had disruptive effects on the global economy "that persist to this day."
"If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades -- not just from the war in Ukraine but also from the Middle East," Gill said.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist, said higher oil prices will inevitably result in higher food prices.
"If a severe oil price shock materializes, it would push up food price inflation that has already been elevated in many developing countries" as a result of Russia's Ukraine invasion, Kose said. "An escalation of the latest conflict would intensify food insecurity, not only within the region but also across the world."
Overall, oil prices have risen about 6 per cent since the start of the conflict. And gold -- a commodity that tends to rise in periods of conflict -- has increased roughly 8 per cent, according to the World Bank.
Some analysts are skeptical that the U.S. would experience massive oil shortages, since U.S. oil production is at an all-time high.
At a Bloomberg event on Thursday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Biden administration was monitoring the economic consequences of Israel's war against Hamas carefully.
"So far, we have not yet seen much that has global consequences," she said, but if the war spreads "of course there could be more meaningful consequences."
International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said between Russia's invasion and the latest violence between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, "no one can convince me that oil and gas are safe and secure energy choices for countries or consumers."
MPs debated the first non-confidence motion of the fall House of Commons sitting today, seeing Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre push once again for a snap election. But with votes secured to keep them afloat, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals were quick to turn the discussion into a referendum on the Conservative alternative.
An image of the unidentified object shot down over Canada's Yukon territory in February 2023 has been obtained by CTVNews.ca.
We've all had neighbours we didn't like, but two people from Sault Ste. Marie have been awarded more than half a million dollars for the 'extreme' behaviour of the people who lived next to them.
Canada’s budget watchdog says the federal government may not meet its fiscal anchors if it acquiesces to the Bloc Quebecois' demand to expand seniors benefits in exchange for keeping the minority Liberals in power.
An 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in a caught-on-video incident in Mississauga earlier this month is now facing auto theft charges in Toronto.
Premier Danielle Smith says she plans to reinforce the right to decide whether to receive a vaccination or other medical procedure in changes to the Alberta Bill of Rights.
Donald Trump flubbed the name of Charlottesville, Virginia, while going off script during a speech on Tuesday otherwise focused on economic policy, slamming U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris for lying about 'Charlottestown.'
Â鶹´«Ã½ and the Investigative Journalism Foundation spoke with a Canadian who claims his identity was stolen and used to set up a series of companies peddling fraudulent investment schemes.
Steven Guilbeault accused Pierre Poilievre of catering to his 'rich friends' in the oil and gas sector by pushing a policy to scrap carbon pricing.
Â鶹´«Ã½ and the Investigative Journalism Foundation spoke with a Canadian who claims his identity was stolen and used to set up a series of companies peddling fraudulent investment schemes.
More Canadians are installing solar panels on their homes, but some are facing challenges when it comes to getting home insurance after the panels are put in.
The calls are growing louder for city council to tighten the rules governing short-term accommodations, including those advertised on websites like Airbnb and Vrbo, after students arrived by the busload at a rented house in the Masonville neighbourhood.
A Calgary man is facing child pornography charges after an investigation uncovered years of messages exchanged with an alleged felon.
We've all had neighbours we didn't like, but two people from Sault Ste. Marie have been awarded more than half a million dollars for the 'extreme' behaviour of the people who lived next to them.
The Insurance Bureau of Canada says summer of 2024 is now Canada's most destructive season on record for insured losses due to severe weather events.
A former Memphis police officer who has pleaded guilty to violating Tyre Nichols’s civil rights testified in tears Tuesday, saying he left Nichols’s young son fatherless, that he was sorry and that he wishes he had stopped the punches.
Prince Harry said today's youth is in the midst of an 'epidemic' of anxiety, depression and social isolation due to negative experiences online, as he brought his campaign to help children and their parents navigate cyberspace to this week's Clinton Global Initiative.
Donald Trump flubbed the name of Charlottesville, Virginia, while going off script during a speech on Tuesday otherwise focused on economic policy, slamming U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris for lying about 'Charlottestown.'
Japan's top diplomat asked China to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens there after the fatal stabbing of a Japanese schoolboy, and demanded a crackdown on what she called 'groundless, malicious and anti-Japanese' social media posts that threaten children's safety.
The federal government is advising Canadians in Lebanon to leave now while commercial flights are available, saying, 'Canada is not currently offering assisted departures or evacuations.'
The son of the man suspected in the assassination attempt in Florida of former President Donald Trump has been arrested on federal charges of possessing child sexual abuse images.
MPs debated the first non-confidence motion of the fall House of Commons sitting today, seeing Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre push once again for a snap election. But with votes secured to keep them afloat, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals were quick to turn the discussion into a referendum on the Conservative alternative.
Canada’s budget watchdog says the federal government may not meet its fiscal anchors if it acquiesces to the Bloc Quebecois' demand to expand seniors benefits in exchange for keeping the minority Liberals in power.
The federal Liberals are creating a new agency to beef up Canada's ability to handle rapidly spreading infectious diseases and protect from future pandemics.
The federal Liberals are creating a new agency to beef up Canada's ability to handle rapidly spreading infectious diseases and protect from future pandemics.
The province has announced a new plan to lower the age for mammogram self-referrals to 40 from 50 in an effort to get more Manitobans screened for breast cancer.
Respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, season is just a few months away, but new vaccine options have already arrived for Ontario residents who may be vulnerable to the winter bug.
Scientists have discovered a new species of ghost shark that lives in deep ocean waters near Australia and New Zealand.
A new analysis of dozens of arrowheads is helping researchers piece together a clearer portrait of the warriors who clashed on Europe’s oldest known battlefield 3,250 years ago.
Finally, an emoji to represent us all is coming soon: An exhausted face with bags under its eyes.
Canadian rapper Drake and rockers Arkells are among the top musical talent set to be toasted at the SOCAN Awards tonight.
Another woman sued Sean 'Diddy' Combs on Tuesday, alleging that the music mogul and his head of security raped her and recorded it on video at his New York recording studio in 2001.
The Crown's key witness in the sexual assault trial against former Hedley frontman Jacob Hoggard will take the stand in a northern Ontario courtroom Tuesday afternoon following the judge's instructions to the jury.
Given the continued progress the Bank of Canada has made in bringing inflation back down to the 2 per cent target, it is reasonable to expect more rate cuts, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Tuesday.
Some Royal Bank of Canada employees who joined when the bank acquired HSBC Canada worry they could lose their jobs when RBC's six-month guarantee to keep them expires this month, according to six sources familiar with the situation.
Metro Vancouver grain terminal workers are now on strike, bringing tens of millions of dollars of exports to a standstill.
From cellphone 'hotels' to patchwork policies to recalibrating lesson plans, teachers and schools across Canada are learning to navigate a classroom without cellphones.
An ordinary day on the job delivering mail in East Elmwood quickly turned dramatic for Canada Post letter carrier Jared Plourde. A woman on his route was calling out in distress.
The Newcomers Football Club, an impromptu team made up of asylum-seekers, has helped provide Boubacar Lukaku and others with a joy that erases their stress. And it's helped connect them with a supportive community as they navigate the challenges of a new country.
Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre revealed Tuesday at a hearing on federal welfare reform that he has been diagnosed with Parkinson's disease.
Reid Carruthers seeks a three-peat in curling's quirky PointsBet Invitational that's become an unofficial season kickoff because of money, field and visibility.
Cole Perfetti will suit up for the Winnipeg Jets for another two years.
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) reported this week that officers in the agency's Montreal Marine and Rail Services seized 78 vehicles and transferred them to police. Numbers of stolen vehicles in Quebec continue to skyrocket.
Struggling Jeep and Ram maker Stellantis is looking for a CEO to succeed Carlos Tavares, but the company says it's just part of a normal leadership succession plan.
The U.S. Commerce Department on Monday will propose a ban on the sale or import of smart vehicles that use specific Chinese or Russian technology because of national security concerns, according to U.S. officials.
An ordinary day on the job delivering mail in East Elmwood quickly turned dramatic for Canada Post letter carrier Jared Plourde. A woman on his route was calling out in distress.
Fire has destroyed a barn and 17,000 plants at a family-owned business in Lower Coverdale, N.B.
Before influencers on social media, Canada’s Jeanne Beker was bringing the world of high fashion down to earth and as Calgary’s Glenbow Museum gets a major make-over, it will include a new exhibition showcasing the pop culture icon.
A sea lion swam free after a rescue team disentangled it near Vancouver Island earlier this week.
A Nova Scotian YouTuber has launched a mini-truck bookmobile.
Cole Haas is more than just an avid fan of the F.W. Johnson Wildcats football team. He's a fixture on the sidelines, a source of encouragement, and a beloved member of the team.
Getting a photograph of a rainbow? Common. Getting a photo of a lightning strike? Rare. Getting a photo of both at the same time? Extremely rare, but it happened to a Manitoba photographer this week.
An anonymous business owner paid off the mortgage for a New Brunswick not-for-profit.
They say a dog is a man’s best friend. In the case of Darren Cropper, from Bonfield, Ont., his three-year-old Siberian husky and golden retriever mix named Bear literally saved his life.
A trio of B.C. Mounties who were suspended three years ago over their alleged participation in an "atrocious," "racist" and "horrible" group chat are currently receiving their salaries, the federal police force has confirmed.
Video of a B.C. man's surprise encounter with a black bear has gone viral online, generating much discussion about how to best respond when face-to-face with an aggressive animal.
Â鶹´«Ã½ and the Investigative Journalism Foundation spoke with a Canadian who claims his identity was stolen and used to set up a series of companies peddling fraudulent investment schemes.
An 18-year-old woman who allegedly stole a Porsche and then ran over its owner in a caught-on-video incident in Mississauga earlier this month is now facing auto theft charges in Toronto.
Respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, season is just a few months away, but new vaccine options have already arrived for Ontario residents who may be vulnerable to the winter bug.
The City of Toronto is still playing catch-up from last year's vacant home tax debacle.
Premier Danielle Smith says she plans to reinforce the right to decide whether to receive a vaccination or other medical procedure in changes to the Alberta Bill of Rights.
The Calgary Food Bank is facing a challenge – demand for food is high, while donations are down.
A Calgary man is facing child pornography charges after an investigation uncovered years of messages exchanged with an alleged felon.
As sirens sound in Lebanon amid escalating violence between Israel and militant group Hezbollah, many Ottawa residents with family there find it hard to watch.
Ottawa police say two people under the age of 18 have been arrested following an incident that prompted a lockdown at Glebe Collegiate Institute around the noon hour Tuesday.
Ottawa's new three-item garbage limit takes effect Monday, and some residents took full advantage over the weekend, throwing out as much waste as possible.
The heat is rising for Quebec Premier François Legault as opposition parties demand answers about his government's investment in the planned Northvolt battery factory near Montreal.
Quebec's language watchdog received a record number of complaints from citizens last year and carried out an increasing number of inspections on employers.
One of Montreal's biggest cultural institutions, La Tulipe, announced that it has closed down 'for now' in light of a recent court decision.
One person was hospitalized after a crash involving a Valley Line Southeast LRT train and a semi Tuesday morning.
A transgender Albertan says it would be a slap in the face if Premier Danielle Smith allows back into the government caucus a member who once compared transgender children to feces.
Premier Danielle Smith says she plans to reinforce the right to decide whether to receive a vaccination or other medical procedure in changes to the Alberta Bill of Rights.
As temperatures cool down, the Halifax Regional Municipality is serving eviction notices to residents at one of the city’s larger tent encampments.
Antigonish County District RCMP is trying to track down a man wanted on a provincewide arrest warrant for sexual assault in Nova Scotia.
The Saint John Police Force is asking for the public’s help in locating Eric Martin, 48, who is wanted on a Canada-wide warrant.
Unions representing roughly 25,000 health-care support workers have issued a strike notice, alerting the province its members will walk off the job if a deal is not reached before a looming deadline.
The province has announced a new plan to lower the age for mammogram self-referrals to 40 from 50 in an effort to get more Manitobans screened for breast cancer.
Manitoba is struggling to hold on to its young nurses; however, the issue is not as bad in the province as it is in the rest of the country.
Saskatchewan RCMP remain at the scene of a "police incident" on Fishing Lake First Nation after it announced officers were in the area searching for a suspect wanted in a long list of armed robberies.
Regina police will be conducting a two-day traffic blitz in and around the city Tuesday and Wednesday.
A study from the University of Ottawa has laid out a damning portrait of the current state of violence and harassment educators face in schools, according to the Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation (STF).
A reward of up to $50K has been issued by Waterloo Regional Police for information leading to the conviction of the person or persons responsible for the fatal stabbing of 18-year-old Joshua Bennett.
A replacement plaque has been installed at a memorial for a Cambridge boy and a Waterloo Regional Police officer who drowned in 1998.
Environment Canada says southwestern Ontario could get up to 55 mm of rain by Wednesday morning.
A man and woman in Saskatoon who had two kilograms of methamphetamine seized from a home are going back to trial after having their acquittals overturned.
Saskatchewan RCMP remain at the scene of a "police incident" on Fishing Lake First Nation after it announced officers were in the area searching for a suspect wanted in a long list of armed robberies.
A study from the University of Ottawa has laid out a damning portrait of the current state of violence and harassment educators face in schools, according to the Saskatchewan Teachers’ Federation (STF).
We've all had neighbours we didn't like, but two people from Sault Ste. Marie have been awarded more than half a million dollars for the 'extreme' behaviour of the people who lived next to them.
An image of the unidentified object shot down over Canada's Yukon territory in February 2023 has been obtained by CTVNews.ca.
A 49-year-old Sudbury woman who was killed in a tragic collision with a police boat June 7 on Nepewassi Lake was told to remain in a residence on an island until police returned to pick her up.
Budweiser Gardens will be going the way of the Skydome – London’s largest entertainment venue will officially be called Canada Life Place as of October 11.
“I was going to make breakfast, and I put the frying pan on the stove and opened it and remembered I needed something from No Frills,†said Frank Wall, who lives just north of Aylmer, Ont.
A model for the future of affordable housing neighbourhoods is rapidly taking shape in St. Thomas this week.
Three construction workers are being praised for their actions that police in Barrie say likely prevented an armed man from fleeing before being taken into custody.
Four puppies were found near County Road 21 in Essa after a passerby spotted one when it ran out of the ditch and onto the road.
An Uber driver was handed a 12-month driving ban on Tuesday following a collision that injured a pedestrian and killed a labrador retriever in Barrie.
Windsor police officers are asking for the public’s help identifying and finding a suspect after a convenience store robbery in south Windsor.
Given the continued progress the Bank of Canada has made in bringing inflation back down to the 2 per cent target, it is reasonable to expect more rate cuts, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Tuesday.
A man swimming across the Detroit River from Windsor to Detroit was rescued by a mail boat, according to the J.W. Westcott Company.
A man and a woman from Nanaimo, B.C., are facing more than two dozen charges after police seized four guns and several hundred grams of illicit drugs following a complaint about drug trafficking in the city's downtown core.
Former British Columbia chief coroner Lisa Lapointe has emerged from retirement to throw her weight behind a BC Green's campaign pledge to expand safer supply of opioids and other drugs to deal with the province's deadly overdose crisis.
Video of a B.C. man's surprise encounter with a black bear has gone viral online, generating much discussion about how to best respond when face-to-face with an aggressive animal.
A pair of runaway pigs are in the custody of an animal sanctuary in the Okanagan after evading police and volunteers for hours earlier this week.
The Red Bridge, a historic landmark in Kamloops, B.C., was completely destroyed by fire early Thursday morning.
Animal protection officers in British Columbia have rescued three pit bulls – including one that gave birth to 10 puppies – from a rat-infested home in Kelowna.
To make higher education an easier step to take for Indigenous students, the University of Lethbridge is dropping some fees for those applicants.
Authorities arrested a man from Pincher Creek after shots were fired near a home on the Blood Tribe First Nation.
A former Lethbridge pastor who bilked millions out of hundreds of southern Albertans has appealed his conviction and sentence.
A 25-year-old suspect was charged with impaired driving Sept. 21 after police spotted two people without helmets on an ATV on Sand Bay Road in Goulais River.
A federal offender who was last seen in Sudbury is wanted on a Canada-wide warrant for allegedly breaching his statutory release conditions.
The Crown's key witness in the sexual assault trial against former Hedley frontman Jacob Hoggard will take the stand in a northern Ontario courtroom Tuesday afternoon following the judge's instructions to the jury.
Newfoundland and Labrador sponsored a minor football team in England, now they’re about to play one of the biggest clubs in European soccer.
Newfoundland and Labrador's chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
A 16-year-old biennial event aimed at fostering business in the country's eastern Arctic and northern regions has been cancelled indefinitely as a dispute unfolds between Inuit in Canada and a Labrador group claiming to share their heritage.
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