North American stock markets gain on rate signals

A currency trader watches monitors at the foreign exchange dealing room of the KEB Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday, Dec. 21, 2021. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

TORONTO -

A surge in crude oil prices above US$110 per barrel and support for the financials sector after an interest rate hike by Bank of Canada helped the country's main stock index to wipe out losses so far in 2022.

"It's a great day. It's long overdue," said Allan Small, senior investment adviser at IA Private Wealth.

The S&P/TSX composite index rose progressively all day to close up 251.13 points at 21,255.64 to be up slightly year-to-date.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 596.40 points at 33,891.35. The S&P 500 index was up 80.28 points at 4,386.54, while the Nasdaq composite was up 219.56 points at 13,752.02.

Markets got some more clarity Wednesday with the Bank of Canada increasing rates by 25 basis points. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell signalled in testimony to Congress a similar move later this month even though the attack on Ukraine may have "muddied conditions."

Small said some Fed officials had recently been calling for an increase of 50 basis points, but Powell's comments put that to rest.

The TSX enjoyed a broad-based rally with only technology slipping as shares of Shopify Inc. lost 2.9 per cent.

Half of the 10 sectors that were positive on the day increased by more than one percentage point. Industrials increased 2.8 per cent with Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. gaining 4.4 per cent and Air Canada up 4.2 per cent as travel and other COVID-19 restrictions fade.

The heavyweight financial sector that includes banks and insurance companies gained 1.5 per cent as the Bank of Canada's rate hike increase improves bank profitability from higher net interest margins. Bond yields also moved up after dropping following the start of the war last week.

Shares of Laurentian Bank climbed 4.6 per cent following a strong quarterly earnings report, while TD and Bank of Nova Scotia were 2.6 and 2.5 per cent higher, respectively.

"Banks are up because overall the economy is doing well. A bit of a relief rally. We've seen banks sell off the last few days under the weight of Ukraine and Russia."

A rise in the energy sector was powered by crude oil prices increasing seven per cent as sanctions and boycotts against Russia are making it more difficult for the large producer of oil and natural gas to sell and deliver its products.

The April crude oil contract was up US$7.19 at US$110.60 per barrel after reaching a high of US$112.51 per barrel. The April natural gas contract was up 18.9 cents at US$4.76 per mmBTU.

Meg Energy Corp. shares were up 2.8 per cent.

While crude prices could still climb to US$120 per barrel, Small doesn't think they will remain high for long because the elevated prices are based solely on the fear of the war going on in Ukraine.

"If you get some sort of ceasefire in Ukraine, I would look to see oil plummet very quickly."

The Canadian dollar traded at a five-week high of 78.94 cents US compared with 78.69 cents US on Tuesday.

Materials was slightly higher even though gold prices receded.

The April gold contract was down US$21.50 at US$1,922.30 an ounce and the May copper contract was up 6.9 cents at US$4.67 a pound.

The TSX underperformed U.S. stock markets Wednesday after commodities helped lift it in recent sessions.

"It just didn't fall as much, so the rebound is not as sharp," Small said.

Investors' main fear is if central banks raise interest rates too fast rather than at a measured pace, he said, adding that rising rates won't deter investors holding cash who have been waiting for an opportunity to buy.

"You still probably have a runway of many months before interest rates get high enough that individual investors consider not buying on the dips where TINA does not apply: There is no alternative."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 2, 2022.

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