The unemployment picture in Canada remained virtually unchanged in June, to the surprise of many economists who expected more jobs would be lost to the shrinking economy.
Statistics Canada says the economy lost a total of 6,400 jobs last month -- fewer than the 10,000 lost jobs that many economists had expected. The number of full-time jobs increased by 64,800 during the month, while 71,200 part-time jobs were lost.
According to Thomson Reuters, many economists had expected unemployment to rise to 6.9 per cent. But Statistics Canada says the job losses weren't enough to push the rate up.
Finance Minister Joe Oliver reacted to the latest jobless numbers by saying that while monthly job estimates can be volatile, the economy has still managed to create 96,000 new full-time jobs this year.鈥�
Ian Lee with Carleton University's Sprott School of Business says the jobless numbers suggest to him that Canada's economy overall is holding steady, even while the country's oil and gas sector is being hit by the drop in world prices.
"These numbers show that there's much greater resilience in the Canadian economy than perhaps a lot of us thought," he told 麻豆传媒 Channel Friday.
He added that a loss of 6,400 jobs in an economy that employs 18 million Canadians "is infinitesimally, microscopically tiny."
The Conference Board of Canada鈥檚 associate director of national forecasts was also guardedly optimistic about the numbers.
鈥淲e certainly expected the economy to be weak in the first half (of the year),鈥� Matthew Stewart told 麻豆传媒 Channel. However, he projects 鈥渃onditions will improve substantially鈥� in the second half of 2015.
鈥淓ven if the economy does enter a recession in the first half of the year, it鈥檒l be mild,鈥� he said.
This month's jobs report is the last major glimpse into the health of the economy before the Bank of Canada makes its announcement next week on whether to hold its key lending rate steady, or make another cut.
Several of Canada's big banks have predicted the central bank will be forced to make a rate cut, given that the April GDP numbers showed the economy contracted for the fourth straight month.
Stewart anticipates the BoC will 鈥渟tand pat鈥� until the economy improves.
Economists with many of the banks have forecasted that when the rest of the quarter's numbers come in, it will show that Canada has slipped into a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
But others, such as Lee, have suggested that if Canada is in a recession, it's only a mild, "technical" recession.
"One of the defining elements of a recession is that unemployment skyrockets. We are not facing skyrocketing unemployment. It's flatlined," Lee said Friday.
On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund said that while the Canadian economy will grow in 2015, it will not grow as quickly as it once thought.
The banking group said because oil prices have hit Canada and the United States hard, it expects to see only 1.5 per cent growth in Canada this year -- down from its April prediction of 2.2 per cent.
